![]() And if we look at numbers without the yard coach, the average is around 760 yards, far far away from the 11th grand prize. Still doesn't make up for the fact that without the event surprise box you can't get it. ![]() ![]() Practically everybody who go for most efficient choices and use the yard coach (or dia coach) will get the 11th grand prize. In that case things are improved quite a bit, bumping average to just above 938 yards. I'll include it at the end if you wanna have a look or check if anything is wrong Here are my results based on 100k games (for each starting amount):ĮDIT: I based the starting numbers on xiv's post, seems he forgot to add the milestones per his edit So, actual starting balls should be 8960. It's simulation time! I wrote a simple script to simulate the minigame, assuming that each player type has the same chance of being picked, and each player within a type has the same chance. I feel it's reasonable to get 600 from incidents - but the math is very tight to be dependent on that (I also think this is consistent with past forge bowls balancing - I guess it's the price for it being a very good event to win daily specials in (and given the disappointment with the main prize, a reasonable alternative if you don't use the ultimate coach is to use the +5% special coach and just not care about the main building) Short 577 - call it 600 balls that you'll need from incidents or diamonds. Need 6 upgrades = 11 grandprizes = 880 yards. Starting from a lv 4 building (lv 3 from milestones + 1 from surprise box): Weighted average: 50.3 for 5.3 = 9.53 footballs / yard I think this lines up with past forge-bowls expectations as well (whether we like it or not).ħ4 for 7, 2.8% of the time (edit: actually not helpful inserting this I realised after posting, but it only makes a difference of 0.01 footballs / yard - still makes it easier to instruct people as "always lowest cost" works without this) So yea, there'd be a lot of room to mess it up. My math suggests you'd finish the grand prize with baseline footballs, if you had the event box, and if you used the +1 yard coach (or ultimate coach) with short-yardage plays barely (including about 600 footballs from incidents). ![]()
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